Hindsight bias – A known psychological phenomenon wherein people tend to overemphasized the predictability of events prior to their happening. American Psychological Association conducted a study in 2000 disclosed that hindsight bias inclined to help the people of thinking clearly by assisting the brain in retaining accurate and significant information instead of inaccurate one. The hindsight bias phenomenon can be more understood by using relevant examples from actual case scenario.
How does it work?
This bias basically works in several ways. It is essentially important in considering it in criminal cases for the reason that a witness has a tendency not to be closely accurate. The witness, which may have been clouted by hindsight bias together with other several biases, which affect the manner brain restores as well as recalls information. We can think of other examples how hindsight bias is applicable in our own life.An example occurrence of hindsight bias phenomenon is if somebody claimed his prediction regarding an event is more considerable than what it really was. A person may generally observe, “it may rain in the future”, given his general knowledge on whether patterns. Moreover, the moment that it rains after the statement, the person may perceive that his prediction is stronger than it really was. Inaccurate or incorrect predictions may not be remembered as the same with unclearly correct prediction, which supported the idea in somebody’s mind that their predictive skills are better compared with what they really are.
Taking into consideration the phenomenon “vaticinium ex eventu”. An extremely unclear statement concerning an event that may occur was made. The same unclear statement will be turned into a solid prediction prior to the occurrence of the event. Several other examples of unclear predictions that later were thought as more significant than they were, are found in the Greek mythology. In Greek mythology, cryptic oracles create blanket statements that could be said easily to be a prediction of many events.
With the other several biases that are documented in psychology, hindsight bias is generated by something accepted as availability heuristic. In a sense, people create assessments regarding things based on information that they can easily bring into their mind, which may not be considered as the most scientific method in basing such assessment. Let us take an example, say a person visits a store in the fast food area, and noted that all the patron in that store are overweight. That person may declare that all the patrons in that food area is overweight, based on the observation made in one of the store. With regard to hindsight bias, the people turn few unclear statements into concrete predictions, and can assume an event such as the Presidential election outcome may be predicted basing on their experience.
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Paying your employes the minimum wage does have an effect on the amount their morale? Business that do pay minimum wage do have low morale. Causation doesn’t equal correlation!
Does the minimum wage effect job growth? according to the facts the every time the minimum wage has gone up in the past the growth of the economy and jobs has not slowed down.
The age of the web is upon us, there is just too much going on online and there are also more and more people who are using the web for almost everything they do every day. From shopping, banking and paying bills, you can do almost everything online. However, even when products and services are effectively marketed online, there is no denying that traditional offline strategies will still emerge as effective despite the presence of more convenient methods.
- A contest for your new products or service – customers love joining contests especially when they can participate in promoting a new product like naming the product or suggesting features that appeal to them. Contests are the best ways to launch a start-up since you will also be able to learn more about your market as well. Announce your contest from your shop, a community bulletin board or by giving away fliers where your market is located.
- A taste test – this is perfect to market a start-up especially when you are selling food or food stuffs. Asking people to taste your products from a local market or grocery store will set your business going. You may also send samples directly to your target market like sending cookies to your friends or family that belong to your target market. But this is not just about a taste test; you also need to ask your test subjects as to how they found your product. You will not just effectively launch your product or a new campaign but you will also get the opinion of your market as well.
- A discount offer or a free service – totally an effective way to start any business campaign is to give discount offers or free services to customers. A customer is keen on looking for new offers and your start-up campaign will definitely catch their attention. A discount offer may apply to ordering the new product or the new service or you may add a bonus like free shipping or handling on orders that reach a specific amount. Your business will totally regain its momentum when you use an effective start-up technique.
Business management is important even for a small business and if you are a small business owner chances are you may only have a few employees under your supervision. Possibly the burden of managing your business rests entirely on your shoulders but do not despair, almost all small business owners started out this way. With consistent planning and determination, you can eventually expand your business. Here are small business management tips:
- Stick with your plan – you may have surely created a business management plan before start up and experts agree that having a well-made plan totally increases your success in business. Break your plan into phases so you can easily fulfil short term goals and then finally your long term ones. You can also easily make changes with your plans at any point in time when you break your plans into workable phases.
- Managing your cashflow – have a consistent way to manage your cashflow. Develop clear rules on how you will manage payments so you will never have to deal with late payments, troubles with suppliers and customers.
- Develop different marketing strategies – marketing is important in any business; it will improve the way you serve your products or service to your target market, increase your sales and revenue and help establish your brand. Check out new marketing strategies like internet marketing which can help you market your business locally and even abroad. There are so many updated marketing strategies that you may use and most of these are not so hard to do like making a site or blog for your business and the use of social networking.
- Study your market periodically – studying your target market is done not just during the planning stage but before and immediately after a new marketing campaign, as you launch new products or services and several times during the year. Your goal is to improve your business according to your market and possibly develop strategies and products that can meet your market’s needs. A close study of your market will also help you come up with better techniques to keep up with your competitors.